EB-2 China and Rest of World: The October 2026 forecast, archived

Historical forecast, September 5, 2026: Read the confirmed October 2026 EB-2 NIW analysis. The forecast below is preserved as published; the confirmed dates supersede it.

If you're chargeable to India, the real story this October is there: EB-2 India has been Unavailable since July and resets October 1, with an official DOS directional signal and several other forecasts to weigh. See the companion page: EB-2 India October 2026 predictions.

For China and everywhere else, October is a quieter month, though not a guaranteed one. Here's the official baseline and the one statistical forecast available for each.

EB-2 NIW, quickly explained for this article

National Interest Waiver petitions are filed under the employment-based second preference (EB-2) category. There's no separate "NIW line" on the Visa Bulletin: NIW cases draw from the same EB-2 visa numbers as advanced-degree and exceptional-ability petitions for your country of chargeability.

Why are China and Rest of World in a different position from India?

India has already exhausted its prorated FY2026 EB-2 allocation. China remains oversubscribed but available, while the other chargeability areas remain Current. All of them operate within the same worldwide EB-2 numerical system, and DOS has warned that additional demand can require retrogression or unavailability when applicable annual, category, or prorated country limits are reached. The full mechanism, including how unused family-sponsored visas can inflate the following year's employment-based pool, is explained in detail on the companion page: EB-2 India October 2026 predictions. DOS's September 2026 bulletin also warns that EB-2 demand broadly (not just India) could force retrogression or unavailability before the fiscal year ends September 30, so "no news is good news" isn't guaranteed through the final weeks of FY2026, though it hadn't materialized for China or ROW as of this writing.

What this means for your case right now

The Final Action Date controls when a numerically limited immigrant visa or adjustment application may receive final approval, assuming the applicant is otherwise eligible. The Date for Filing is an earlier paperwork threshold; for adjustment-of-status applicants, USCIS separately announces each month whether that chart may be used. Neither says anything about whether your underlying NIW petition would actually get approved on the merits; that's decided by whether your proposed endeavor, qualifications, and evidence meet the Dhanasar standard. If you want to see how your own profile compares to real, public NIW case outcomes rather than guessing from a date on a chart, PetitionMatcher is built for exactly that.

Quick answers

Has the October 2026 Visa Bulletin been released?
Not yet. As of September 5, DOS has not published the October 2026 bulletin. October bulletins are ordinarily released during September.

Will EB-2 China move much in October?
A third-party model expects only modest movement, on the order of days to a couple of months either direction. DOS has separately warned that continued demand could instead force a retrogression. Either way, that's an estimate and a risk flag, not an official number.

Is EB-2 for other countries at risk of becoming unavailable?
DOS has warned that broad EB-2 demand could force retrogression or unavailability before FY2026 ends, but as of this writing, Rest-of-World EB-2 remains Current.

Does the India situation affect China or Rest-of-World applicants?
India's country-specific exhaustion does not automatically determine the China or Rest-of-World cutoffs. DOS manages the different chargeability areas within the same worldwide EB-2 numerical system based on reported demand and the applicable numerical limits.

This article is informational and reflects publicly available Visa Bulletin data as of the date above. It isn't immigration legal advice. For guidance specific to your case, talk to a licensed immigration attorney.