EB-2 India: The October 2026 forecast, archived

Historical forecast, September 5, 2026: Read the confirmed October 2026 EB-2 NIW analysis. The forecast below is preserved as published; the confirmed dates supersede it.

EB-2 India is currently Unavailable for final action after DOS announced on May 22 that India's prorated FY2026 EB-2 allocation had been exhausted. The annual limit resets October 1. DOS has not published the exact October 2026 cutoff yet, but it has given an unusually specific directional signal: in the July 2026 Visa Bulletin, DOS said the Final Action Date is likely to advance to at least the May 2026 cutoff of July 15, 2014, subject to India EB-2 demand and the FY2027 employment-based annual limit.

EB-2 NIW, quickly explained for this article

National Interest Waiver petitions are filed under the employment-based second preference (EB-2) category. There's no separate "NIW line" on the Visa Bulletin: NIW cases draw from the same EB-2 visa numbers as advanced-degree and exceptional-ability petitions for your country of chargeability. Everything below about "EB-2 India" applies directly to NIW cases in that category.

The September 2026 baseline

This is fact, not forecast, straight from the DOS September 2026 Visa Bulletin:

India's prorated FY2026 EB-2 limit was reached. DOS confirmed this on May 22, 2026: all available EB-2 visa numbers for India-chargeable applicants had been used, embassies and USCIS could not issue or approve any more for the rest of the year, and the limit resets October 1.

The Final Action Date got there in stages, and DOS's own bulletins document each step. The May 2026 Visa Bulletin listed EB-2 India at July 15, 2014. The June 2026 bulletin then retrogressed the cutoff to September 1, 2013, citing high demand and number use against the FY2026 annual limit. On May 22, DOS separately announced the allocation had been exhausted, and the July 2026 bulletin subsequently displayed the category as Unavailable, in the same section where DOS gave the October directional guidance quoted above.

Visa unavailability does not by itself mean your NIW case was denied. USCIS can continue adjudicating a Form I-140 NIW petition even when an immigrant visa number is unavailable. A green card, however, cannot receive final approval without an available visa number. If a properly filed I-485 is otherwise approvable and the category later retrogresses or becomes unavailable, USCIS may hold the adjustment application pending visa availability.

DOS also warns, in the same September bulletin, that EB-2 demand broadly (not just India) could force further retrogression or unavailability before the fiscal year closes on September 30.

What different sources are saying about October

DOS won't have a final count of FY2026 family-preference usage for a while, which is why nobody, including DOS, has published a precise October cutoff yet. DOS has, however, said more than nothing. Here's what different sources are saying, clearly labeled so you know which is which and which one is DOS's own words.

Why does a new fiscal year change anything?

The federal fiscal year runs October 1 through September 30. Congress sets annual limits on how many immigrant visas each category can issue, and once those numbers exhaust for a country or category, DOS marks it "Unavailable" for the rest of that fiscal year. That's exactly what happened to EB-2 India in FY2026. On October 1, the counter resets and a fresh annual allocation becomes available.

It's also why unused family-sponsored numbers matter to employment-based applicants at all, even though the two categories sound unrelated:

1. Congress sets the worldwide family-sponsored preference limit each year: 226,000 for FY2026.
2. Whatever portion goes unissued that year doesn't disappear. It gets added to the next year's worldwide employment-based limit, under 8 U.S.C. § 1151(d).
3. That larger worldwide employment total gets divided by statute: EB-2 receives 28.6% of the worldwide employment-based preference level, plus any numbers not required by EB-1.
4. NIW petitions are adjudicated as EB-2 cases, so they draw from that same pool.

For FY2026, DOS ultimately set the worldwide employment-based preference limit at 186,317, which is 46,317 above the 140,000 statutory base. That's a useful recent benchmark for the carryover mechanism, though it reflects FY2025's actual family-preference usage feeding FY2026, not FY2026's usage feeding FY2027, which won't be known until after September 30.

Final Action Date vs. Date for Filing

• Final Action Date (FAD): the cutoff controlling when a numerically limited immigrant visa or adjustment application may receive final approval, assuming the applicant is otherwise eligible.
• Date for Filing (DFF): the cutoff DOS uses to indicate when qualifying applicants may begin submitting required visa documentation. For adjustment-of-status applicants in the United States, USCIS separately announces each month whether they may use the Dates for Filing chart or must use Final Action Dates. Check uscis.gov/visabulletininfo before assuming it applies to you. Being able to file paperwork under DFF does not mean a visa number is available for final approval.

Has this happened before?

The last fiscal-year reset offers useful context, but it isn't a direct analogue. Going into the October 2025 reset, EB-2 India had been stuck at a Final Action Date of January 1, 2013 for several months; the reset advanced it to April 1, 2013, a 3-month jump. From there it continued advancing through FY2026, reaching July 15, 2014 by the May 2026 bulletin, before the June bulletin retrogressed it to September 1, 2013 and DOS announced on May 22 that India's FY2026 EB-2 allocation had been exhausted. The category has shown Unavailable since the July bulletin.

This cycle's setup is different from last cycle's: EB-2 India enters the October 2026 reset from Unavailable, after a year that saw a large advance followed by a sharp retrogression, rather than from a category that was merely stuck at an old date. That's part of why we're treating last year's 3-month opening jump as the closest recent comparison, not a formula, and why DOS's own July statement, that October should advance to at least July 15, 2014, carries more weight than pattern-matching from a single prior year.

PetitionMatcher's FY2027 visa-number scenarios

PetitionMatcher can model the supply side more defensibly than the exact cutoff date. Under the statutory formula, FY2027's worldwide employment-based preference limit will depend in part on unused FY2026 family-sponsored preference numbers. Because that final figure won't be known until after September 30, we ran three illustrative carryover scenarios. We then calculated 28.6% of each resulting worldwide employment-based total as EB-2's base statutory share. These figures don't include any additional numbers that might become available to EB-2 because EB-1 doesn't use them, which would only push the totals higher.

Our scenarios apply the statutory allocation formula to three explicitly labeled carryover assumptions. They're intended to show how different FY2027 supply levels would affect EB-2's base worldwide allocation, not to predict the exact India cutoff. Conservative, Base, and Optimistic are scenario labels only; we don't have a quantitative basis for calling any one of them more likely than the others.

These are supply scenarios, not probabilities and not India Final Action Date predictions. We are deliberately not converting these totals into a precise India cutoff, because DOS does not publish enough demand-by-priority-date information to support that conversion. The strongest official October signal currently available remains DOS's own statement, in the July 2026 Visa Bulletin, that the India EB-2 Final Action Date is likely to advance to at least July 15, 2014, subject to India EB-2 demand and the FY2027 employment-based annual limit.

What other sources say, at a glance

What this means for your case right now

Whatever October brings, a few things are true regardless:

• Visa-number unavailability does not by itself prevent USCIS from adjudicating an I-140 NIW petition.
• An immigrant visa or I-485 cannot receive final approval without an available visa number.
• If a properly filed I-485 is otherwise approvable and the category retrogresses or becomes unavailable, USCIS may hold it pending visa availability.
• The category becoming Unavailable does not by itself change your priority date.
• Visa Bulletin movement says nothing about whether the I-140 NIW petition meets the merits standard set out in Dhanasar.

That last point is worth sitting with. A lot of the anxiety around visa bulletin season is really about queue position, when the harder and more answerable question for most applicants is whether their case, as built, looks like the NIW petitions that have actually been approved. PetitionMatcher compares your profile against real, public NIW case outcomes so you can see that fuller picture instead of relying on either law-firm success stories or the doom-and-gloom you'll find in forum threads.

Quick answers

Has the October 2026 Visa Bulletin been released?
No. As of September 5, 2026, DOS has not published the October 2026 bulletin. October bulletins are ordinarily released during September.

When will EB-2 India visa numbers become available again?
The FY2027 annual limits reset October 1, 2026. DOS has said, in the July 2026 Visa Bulletin, that the October India EB-2 Final Action Date is likely to advance to at least the May 2026 cutoff of July 15, 2014, but the actual date depends on India EB-2 demand and the FY2027 employment-based annual limit.

Is my pending NIW case in trouble because EB-2 India is Unavailable?
Unavailability is a visa-number issue, not a merits denial. USCIS can continue adjudicating an I-140 NIW petition, but an immigrant visa or I-485 cannot receive final approval without an available visa number.

What's the difference between Final Action Date and Date for Filing?
Final Action Date controls when a numerically limited immigrant visa or adjustment application may receive final approval. Date for Filing is a cutoff for submitting paperwork, and USCIS separately announces each month whether adjustment-of-status applicants may use that chart instead.

Will EB-2 India definitely advance a lot in October?
No exact cutoff is guaranteed. DOS has said an advance to at least the May 2026 Final Action Date of July 15, 2014 is likely, but expressly conditioned that outlook on India EB-2 demand and the FY2027 employment-based annual limit.

This article is informational and reflects publicly available Visa Bulletin data as of the date above. It isn't immigration legal advice. For guidance specific to your case, talk to a licensed immigration attorney.