What Are My EB-2 NIW Chances? What Our Data Can Tell You

Public cases can help you compare your evidence and proposed work, but they cannot tell you your personal approval chances. This article focuses on the I-140 NIW petition stage. An approved petition and receiving a green card are separate steps. Our I-140 and I-485 guide explains the difference. AAO means USCIS’s Administrative Appeals Office.

What evidence do I need beyond publications and citations?

Peer review, letters, funding and practical use of your work can support your record alongside publications and citations. Publications, citations, peer review and letters were reported together in 2,076 of 5,114 selected published approval accounts. The table uses the largest collection of published law firm case studies in our September 24, 2026 archive. It covers selected approvals, rather than the outcomes of all applicants.

Some cases appear in more than one row, and each row covers a different group of cases. These percentages do not show a required combination of evidence or explain why a case was approved.

We count only evidence that the published account explicitly mentions. The funding row counts cases that report funding; the practical-use row counts cases that report use of the work. If a summary leaves something out, we cannot assume the applicant did not have it. Our research methodology explains how we work with public case information.

Do I need a PhD?

A PhD is not required for every NIW applicant. A master’s or bachelor’s degree was the highest completed degree in 720 of the 2,707 published profiles where we could identify it. Comparing only PhD holders would leave these applicants out. That total excludes profiles where we could not classify the applicant’s highest completed degree. The degree listed also does not tell us which EB-2 eligibility route the applicant used.

You must first qualify for EB-2 as either a professional with a qualifying advanced degree or a person of exceptional ability. A U.S. bachelor’s degree or its foreign equivalent can meet the advanced-degree definition if it is followed by at least five years of progressive experience in that specialty. A foreign qualification must have the required U.S. equivalency. If the specialty normally requires a doctorate, you need one. These rules establish EB-2 eligibility. The NIW requirements are a separate question. 8 CFR 204.5(k)

Can I qualify through industry experience with few or no publications?

Yes, industry applicants can qualify with few publications. A 2025 approval account describes a software engineer with one journal article and one conference paper. He worked on AI-powered mortgage and e-commerce systems. The publisher reports NIW approval April 16, 2025, after a request for evidence (RFE). Read the software engineer account

Another account reports NIW approval May 27, 2017, for an environmental project manager/engineer with one scientific article and 38 citations. It describes site remediation, air-quality management and other practical work, plus letters from companies he served as a consultant. Read the environmental engineering account

The firm also reports NIW approval December 6, 2012, for a web developer with no publications or citations at filing. This was before the Dhanasar decision, so it is a historical example under an earlier legal framework. Read the historical web-developer account

The Dhanasar decision does not set one minimum publication or citation count for all applicants. It considers relevant experience, achievements, plans, progress and interest from potential users, customers or investors. Matter of Dhanasar If a summary does not give a publication count, we cannot assume the applicant had none. These examples show that approval is possible, but they do not tell you what evidence will be enough for your petition or how likely it is to be approved.

How much do my publications and citations matter?

Publications and citations can show research activity and interest in your work, but they do not meet the NIW requirements on their own. An April 2026 AAO decision discussed a paper with 139 citations, but found that the researcher had not shown he was ‘well positioned’ to move his proposed work forward. AAO decision, April 2, 2026

Look at why others cite the work and how it supports your proposed work. In that decision, AAO found that citations showed interest but were not enough to show research success. Published approval accounts also show what other evidence applicants had alongside low citation counts:

• Chemical engineering: a law firm account reports six citations at filing, use of the research, defense funding, and four letters for work on critical-material extraction. The firm reports I-140 NIW approval May 14, 2026, and published the account July 15. Read the chemical engineering account
• Manufacturing: a law firm account reports nine citations at filing, publications, research support, and three letters for soft robotic sensing systems. The firm reports I-140 NIW approval August 11, 2026, and published the account September 17. Read the manufacturing account

These summaries do not include the full petitions or explain USCIS’s reasons for approving them. They cannot tell you how many citations would be enough or which part of the evidence led to approval.

Why could my NIW be denied even with a strong evidence record?

A strong CV does not automatically meet every NIW requirement. In one April 2026 appeal, AAO accepted national importance, but found that a PhD researcher with publications, citations and peer review had not shown he was ‘well positioned’ to move his proposed work forward. AAO decision, April 2, 2026

In that AI case, AAO also identified gaps about how the applicant would pursue the planned research while employed and how future projects would be funded.

The next two AAO decisions make the same point: a strong record must support the specific NIW requirement. The AI case fell short on showing that the applicant was well positioned to move his work forward. The biostatistics and semiconductor cases below instead fell short on showing the proposed work’s national importance.

• Biostatistics: a senior principal biostatistician had a doctorate, and letters described publications, citations, open-source software and collaboration with the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA). AAO found that the evidence did not show the wider impact of the specific proposed work. Those professional achievements did not establish national importance. AAO biostatistics decision
• Semiconductors: a computer science PhD proposed using machine learning to find defects in semiconductor wafers. AAO found that industry reports and letters did not show enough evidence of the wider impact that this work could have. The importance of semiconductor manufacturing alone did not answer that question. AAO semiconductor decision

These individual AAO decisions do not set binding rules for other cases. They show why you need to connect your evidence to your proposed work and each NIW requirement. A list of qualifications does not explain what your work could achieve or how you can move it forward.

What do I need to show for the three NIW requirements?

Your proposed work can be valuable without meeting the national importance requirement. AAO found that national importance was not met in 253 of 302 archived 2026 appeal and motion decisions with a finding on that requirement.

Once you qualify for EB-2, the Matter of Dhanasar decision sets out three NIW requirements. Matter of Dhanasar and USCIS Policy Manual

Substantial merit and national importance: start with what you plan to do, the problem it addresses and who could benefit. For example, if you are developing a method to detect defects in semiconductor wafers, explain how it could improve manufacturing and what evidence supports its wider use. A project description, test results, independent technical assessments or evidence of interest from other manufacturers can help connect the work to that impact. The importance of semiconductors alone does not establish the national importance of your project. Work can have national importance through broader implications for a field or region, without reaching every part of the country.

Well positioned to advance the endeavor: connect your experience to a credible plan for doing that work. Relevant publications, practical results and letters can help, but also explain your next projects, your role, the resources you will use and any progress already made. For a researcher, this might include a current or prospective job, access to a laboratory or data, documented funding plans and letters from collaborators confirming their roles. Distinguish secured support from plans still being discussed. Employment is one way to explain how you would carry out the work; NIW does not require a job offer. USCIS looks at the evidence together, rather than treating any one item as required or sufficient.

Benefit of the waiver, on balance: explain why waiving the job offer and labor certification requirements would benefit the United States in your particular case. Labor certification ordinarily protects U.S. workers, so this question asks you to explain the benefit of the waiver itself. For example, if an entrepreneurial project makes labor certification impractical, document how the business would operate and how your contributions would benefit the United States. In another case, evidence might show that your work addresses a time-sensitive public health need. You do not have to prove that no qualified U.S. worker is available. The explanation needs to connect your circumstances to the national benefit of granting the waiver.

AAO found that substantial merit was not met in 9 of 213 decisions with a finding on that point.

We classified these archived 2026 AAO decisions ourselves. For each row, the total includes only decisions where AAO found that the requirement was met or not met. We excluded findings marked as not reached, not disputed, unclear or missing. These are findings from appeals and motions, not issues raised in a request for evidence (RFE). Because each row includes a different group of cases, the table cannot tell you which requirement USCIS most often challenges when first reviewing a petition.

The number of papers you have or your years of experience do not answer all three questions. The Dhanasar decision calls for judgment about the evidence, rather than an automatic score or a qualification that guarantees approval. Matter of Dhanasar

What does the NIW approval rate mean for my chances?

These USCIS figures cover a different group from the AAO decisions and published cases above. The USCIS FY2026 Q3 data release we saved on September 23, 2026 lists 3,835 NIW approvals and 3,103 denials. Approvals make up 55.3% of the 6,938 decisions ending in approval or denial. Counts of petitions received and petitions still waiting for a decision are excluded. USCIS Form I-140 data

These figures group cases by when they received a decision, rather than when they were filed. They include earlier filings and are not specific to your proposed work or evidence. See NIW approval statistics for other periods and an explanation of how the figures are calculated.

How can I make the most of publicly available NIW cases?

Use public cases to discover evidence you may have overlooked and see how other applicants explain their work. Start with similar work and evidence, rather than a matching degree or citation count.

• Spot evidence beyond papers: look for use of the work, project results, patents, funding and letters. Consider which of your own achievements you can document.
• See how the work is explained: what problem does it address, who could benefit, and how could its impact extend beyond one employer?
• Learn from denied cases: read the AAO’s explanation to see which questions the evidence did not answer. A strong CV may still leave questions about the proposed work or the applicant’s ability to move it forward.
• Compare meaningful similarities: look at the proposed work, professional role, career stage and kinds of evidence. Also check whether you are reading an initial approval, an RFE response or an appeal.

Keep a short list of relevant cases and specific questions to discuss with a qualified immigration attorney. Open the original source: public summaries can leave out important details and cannot predict your result.

Should I file now or strengthen my profile first?

Before collecting more evidence, ask what question it would answer. Would it show how your proposed work could have a wider impact, what progress you have made, or how others have used your work? More citations or another year of experience can still leave other NIW questions unanswered.

Separate existing evidence from planned work before discussing timing with a qualified immigration attorney. Comparisons can organize that discussion; they do not determine when to file.

What if one law firm rejects me and another accepts me?

Ask each firm what it is evaluating and which evidence matters to it. For example, Ashoori Law says some evaluations use the firm’s own rules for accepting cases. A firm deciding whether to work with you is different from USCIS deciding your petition. Ashoori Law’s scope of services

Use similar cases to prepare specific questions about your proposed work and evidence. A firm accepting you, rejecting you or offering to refile your petition does not tell you how USCIS will decide it.

Are there publicly available NIW cases from my field?

Public NIW material covers research, industry and creative professions. PetitionMatcher brings together USCIS AAO decisions, law firm case studies and community case reports, so you can look beyond the most familiar academic profiles. The fields below are just a few examples of the much broader coverage you can explore.

• USCIS AAO decisions: the examples above include AI, biostatistics and semiconductor research. Appeal and motion decisions explain where the evidence did or did not establish the NIW requirements.
• Law firm case studies: published approval accounts include software engineering, chemical engineering, environmental consulting and manufacturing. They show the work and evidence their publishers chose to describe.
• Community case reports: applicants share their own backgrounds, evidence and experiences. These are self-reported accounts, distinct from official decisions and law firm summaries.

Our coverage extends beyond the usual STEM and business profiles, reaching specialized fields such as choral music. A law firm’s approval listing describes an assistant professor whose choirs earned national and international awards, with NIW approval reported March 10, 2025. See the choral music approval account

Coverage varies by field, and a shared field alone does not make two cases alike. Look at the proposed work, professional role and evidence. See our research methodology.

Find NIW cases like yours. Create your profile and see how your field, work, and evidence compare.